So did some videos last week on trading tennis on Betfair and specifically at the Australian Open, and I talked about the Grand Slam tournament and how you get uncompetitive matches in the early rounds and how you can trade them, and we had a perfect example of this. Yesterday and that's what I'm going to talk about in this video, please like and comment on the video below that will allow me to produce better quality videos and more of them in the future. If you're interested in learning to trade successfully in sports, then why not visit the better angel Academy where we have more detailed videos? So, as I've mentioned before, you know, you get this pyramid structure with the two top seeds aiming to meet in the final at a Grand Slam, and therefore you get some really weird matches in the early rounds where players are going off for very, very short answer And yesterday we had dimitrov and McDonald - you probably know the former name and not the latter, and it was a very unbalanced uncompetitive match.
So dimitrov was priced at 103, 104 and, of course that determines that he should win that match very easily most of the time and typically he does, and in fact, if you look over tennis matches over a long period of time, you tend to find that that Is pretty much the case? The markets pretty efficient and somebody going off odds of two will win fifty percent of the time and so on, but when you're trading you're not that concerned with that you're not seeking value now there are trades that you can do that. Exploit the creation of value from a betting perspective and turn it into more money in fire trading, but typically that's not what you're doing on trading and you're. Just looking for a window of opportunity and a relatively sensible risk to produce a good payoff? And that's pretty much what we had on the Dimitrov match now the setup for the match itself was that I'm not sure if these two have ever played before, but they're the typical setup that I'm looking for is matches where players haven't played before and you get Seeds, it's opposing ends of the scale and de métro proceeded thirds and McDonald wasn't seeded at all https://www.casinoslots.co.nz/bonus-bets . Now, if you're a player coming into a tournament and you've, you know you're relatively new on the scene, you haven't played some of these players. They have no idea how you're going to play so that creates an opportunity for you now. Obviously, the player on the other side is pretty skilled, but nonetheless you may be at a stand. A chance if you just get a couple of lucky shot, seem to get a couple of easy points with a little bit of luck and then suddenly you've got the potential to break serve now over a very, very long period of time. What you tend to find is that the more the match wears on then the even if the skill gap was only one or two percent between players that tends to play out very much on the favour of the more skilled player. I'Ve done some research and analysis on that. If you're interested in that stuff comment below and I'll post it up, but the longer a match goes on and the you know, even with a tiny skill gap, because there are so many points played within a tennis match that tends to bear true. So that's why the markets efficient in terms of pricing and why you get those extreme odds simply because, typically, that is the correct price that they should be. They will win the match very frequently, and at 103 Dimitrov was pretty much guaranteed to win that match. You got a sort of 97 % chance of winning that match, and indeed he did so. Where was the opportunity from trading? Well McDonald took the opportunity to put a lot of pressure on Dimitrov in the first set, which is typically what an outsider will do. That'S their only chance, you know they may run out steam by the second set or be outgunned or outplayed without thought by the more experienced player. So he went for it in the first set and he got to that break and then he was able to take that first set. So if you look at the odds of dimitrov, they started at 103 and then the price started to head out from there and then Dimitrov got himself together and he managed to win the next set. So the odds came back in again and then - and this this is the surprising bit McDonald's it went on and got another sense of the price went all the way back. I go so at that point with with it with Dimitrov one two and going into the fourth set he's got in that fourth set to stay in the tournament and being the third seed he's got a fair chance this year of you know getting into the latter Stages, winning a lot of money and perhaps getting his first Grand Slam so um. He had to win that fourth set and that's exactly what he did and then we go into the final set and it was pretty close all the way through that final set and you can see the odds wiggling up and down, as you know, that the chance Of a tight break, he goes to one side to a tiebreaker. Ever ever. Break of serve goes to one side and then to the other. So you can see it swinging back to the boards and then dimitrov finally goes on to win the match, but our odds of 103 you're, looking at laying dimitrov with a thousand pound for a liability of only thirty pound. And if you look at the price at which he drifted out to you can see that there was significant amounts of movement. So if my memory serves me correctly, I think MacDonald never traded below odds on. I think he went down to that two point. One was probably the lowest that he traded that when he was in the ascendancy again that's a reflection of the experience and skill of Dimitrov. But as a consequence, you can flip that Randall say, and you can say that Dimitrov almost reach odds of to himself. So have a liability, thirty pound with a thousand pound and you could have traded out nearly at odds of two, so you would have gained the best part of a thousand panel in that particular trade. So that's where you can look at it from a training perspective, because you're saying you know if I make 500 on this trade and my risk is thirty or maybe, if I probably needs a way to parent and paraphrase this is, if I made 300 pounds, was My exit point on this trade and I've got a risk of thirty more than one in ten times. I need to be able to find this trade so in a match at 103, when you've watched the first couple of games, do you think you will be able to find the player that is unlikely to close out his first set? I think if you watch the match - or we do a little bit of research and you can carefully pick and choose your targets - I think that's perfectly possible now, even if you can't do that and the maths is perfect, then you're going to break even at worst.
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