So did some videos last week on trading tennis on Betfair and specifically at the Australian Open, and I talked about the Grand Slam tournament and how you get uncompetitive matches in the early rounds and how you can trade them, and we had a perfect example of this. Yesterday and that's what I'm going to talk about in this video, please like and comment on the video below that will allow me to produce better quality videos and more of them in the future. If you're interested in learning to trade successfully in sports, then why not visit the better angel Academy where we have more detailed videos? So, as I've mentioned before, you know, you get this pyramid structure with the two top seeds aiming to meet in the final at a Grand Slam, and therefore you get some really weird matches in the early rounds where players are going off for very, very short answer And yesterday we had dimitrov and McDonald - you probably know the former name and not the latter, and it was a very unbalanced uncompetitive match.
So dimitrov was priced at 103, 104 and, of course that determines that he should win that match very easily most of the time and typically he does, and in fact, if you look over tennis matches over a long period of time, you tend to find that that Is pretty much the case? The markets pretty efficient and somebody going off odds of two will win fifty percent of the time and so on, but when you're trading you're not that concerned with that you're not seeking value now there are trades that you can do that. Exploit the creation of value from a betting perspective and turn it into more money in fire trading, but typically that's not what you're doing on trading and you're. Just looking for a window of opportunity and a relatively sensible risk to produce a good payoff? And that's pretty much what we had on the Dimitrov match now the setup for the match itself was that I'm not sure if these two have ever played before, but they're the typical setup that I'm looking for is matches where players haven't played before and you get Seeds, it's opposing ends of the scale and de métro proceeded thirds and McDonald wasn't seeded at all https://www.casinoslots.co.nz/bonus-bets . Now, if you're a player coming into a tournament and you've, you know you're relatively new on the scene, you haven't played some of these players. They have no idea how you're going to play so that creates an opportunity for you now. Obviously, the player on the other side is pretty skilled, but nonetheless you may be at a stand. A chance if you just get a couple of lucky shot, seem to get a couple of easy points with a little bit of luck and then suddenly you've got the potential to break serve now over a very, very long period of time. What you tend to find is that the more the match wears on then the even if the skill gap was only one or two percent between players that tends to play out very much on the favour of the more skilled player. I'Ve done some research and analysis on that. If you're interested in that stuff comment below and I'll post it up, but the longer a match goes on and the you know, even with a tiny skill gap, because there are so many points played within a tennis match that tends to bear true. So that's why the markets efficient in terms of pricing and why you get those extreme odds simply because, typically, that is the correct price that they should be. They will win the match very frequently, and at 103 Dimitrov was pretty much guaranteed to win that match. You got a sort of 97 % chance of winning that match, and indeed he did so. Where was the opportunity from trading? Well McDonald took the opportunity to put a lot of pressure on Dimitrov in the first set, which is typically what an outsider will do. That'S their only chance, you know they may run out steam by the second set or be outgunned or outplayed without thought by the more experienced player. So he went for it in the first set and he got to that break and then he was able to take that first set. So if you look at the odds of dimitrov, they started at 103 and then the price started to head out from there and then Dimitrov got himself together and he managed to win the next set. So the odds came back in again and then - and this this is the surprising bit McDonald's it went on and got another sense of the price went all the way back. I go so at that point with with it with Dimitrov one two and going into the fourth set he's got in that fourth set to stay in the tournament and being the third seed he's got a fair chance this year of you know getting into the latter Stages, winning a lot of money and perhaps getting his first Grand Slam so um. He had to win that fourth set and that's exactly what he did and then we go into the final set and it was pretty close all the way through that final set and you can see the odds wiggling up and down, as you know, that the chance Of a tight break, he goes to one side to a tiebreaker. Ever ever. Break of serve goes to one side and then to the other. So you can see it swinging back to the boards and then dimitrov finally goes on to win the match, but our odds of 103 you're, looking at laying dimitrov with a thousand pound for a liability of only thirty pound. And if you look at the price at which he drifted out to you can see that there was significant amounts of movement. So if my memory serves me correctly, I think MacDonald never traded below odds on. I think he went down to that two point. One was probably the lowest that he traded that when he was in the ascendancy again that's a reflection of the experience and skill of Dimitrov. But as a consequence, you can flip that Randall say, and you can say that Dimitrov almost reach odds of to himself. So have a liability, thirty pound with a thousand pound and you could have traded out nearly at odds of two, so you would have gained the best part of a thousand panel in that particular trade. So that's where you can look at it from a training perspective, because you're saying you know if I make 500 on this trade and my risk is thirty or maybe, if I probably needs a way to parent and paraphrase this is, if I made 300 pounds, was My exit point on this trade and I've got a risk of thirty more than one in ten times. I need to be able to find this trade so in a match at 103, when you've watched the first couple of games, do you think you will be able to find the player that is unlikely to close out his first set? I think if you watch the match - or we do a little bit of research and you can carefully pick and choose your targets - I think that's perfectly possible now, even if you can't do that and the maths is perfect, then you're going to break even at worst.
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Good morning. It’s day 6. We are shifting to North Goa. The stay in South Goa was excellent.
Our room was excellent as well. Let me know if you would like me to give you a review of the room. Tilt down the GoPro That's enough. We had refuelled the tank three days back for 2000/-. The rate for diesel per litre is 58/- here. So, that means we had filled around 35 litres of diesel then. It lasted us for three days. And now we have again filled the tank with diesel of 2000/- We have reached North Goa. The name of the hotel is Sanskruti. We are going to have breakfast here. We are going to have breakfast here. We have reached the hotel for stay here in North Goa. The hotel is situated in siolim. Its not situated in the proper north goa as siolim is in the hinterland and it’s very peaceful here. That’s why we picked this place for our stay and it’s also relatively cheaper. It’s 1o’ clock right now. We will be taking a rest for half an hour and will leave for our first destination of the day at 2o’ clock. The destination is Chapora fort a.k.a. Dil Chahta Hai fort. Followed by Vagator beach and Anjuna beach. We are running late because of you. Why don’t you be quick? Tick Tick 1... Tick Tick 2... Tick Tick 10.. Let’s roll. Quickly. We took a rest for two hours and everyone is feeling rested and fresh now. The weather is lovely. It’s neither hot nor raining. Where the hell is everyone? Where have you gone, guys? Near car. Creambell ice cream Guys, we have reached Vagator beach. There is a pay and park facility here outside the entrance of the beach. So I would suggest you make use of it to keep your vehicle safe. Vagator is already brimming with tourists, too crowded. This is Vagator beach. The shacks are open here as it is North Goa. The road to visit any of those shacks is from there as you can see. The road is well maintained. So you can come from there too. And there is Chapora fort. After visiting clean and secluded beaches in South Goa, The north goa appears to be a disappointment. Especially to me. As a tourist, I wouldn’t want to be at crowded and littered beaches after being at clean, secluded beaches. I am sure others would echo my opinion too. The water here has turned brown due to oil spill. Vikas is taking timelapse and once he is done we will leave for Chapora. So many red ants here! It's okay, don't go there. All of them big in size. This big! I have a phobia of ants. We want Cap. We want glucone D. We want it all. We don’t get everything. We have got everything. You guys dont take anyting! Whatever whoever wants will be given today but it has to be in our budget. The outside of the beach is lined up with stalls to shop for artifacts, caps, beach wear etc. You may shop here if you like. We had to skip our lunch today as we were too busy taking rest. So all of us are famished right now. They sell maggi, corn stalk, fruit salad etc. So we are going to have them. Brace yourselves for the attack. It’s a humble request to our viewers. Ahaha. Guys, we have reached second destination. Chapora fort. This fort is famous as Dil Chahta Hai fort. Earlier, there was no proper road to come here. Visitors had to do offroading. Now they are constructing the road. Its officially open till 5.30 pm. But its still open right now as you can see. You may come here through jumping gaps from the side. Many people are here at the fort and they have come here that way. The view from here is beautiful at sunset. That’s why we came a bit late here, at the time of sunset. The beach which is in the background of the fort is Vagator. It’s 1.7 km here from Vagator, Guys, the wall behind me is where the famous scene from Dil Chahta Hai was shot. The scene where Saif Ali Khan, Aamir Khan and Akshaye Khanna are sitting. Instead of going Thalassa and paying there to see sunset, I would recommend you guys come to Chapora. And enjoy sunset from here. By then, the crowd is also reduced to bare minimum here. You will get to see a scenic sunset. The sunset has taken place. I have been to Goa eight times so far and today’s sunset was the best I have seen. The timelapse of the sunset is in the cinematic video. The link for the video is above here. It’s steep and I am wearing flats which is making the way slippery for me. So if you decide to come here, do not forget to wear shoes. I am a Pro We have to for dinner here at 4 roads. We have ordered Chicken Masala and Chicken Kolhapuri. The Fish Thali is available only in the day for lunch, they do not have it for dinner. Meal was delicious. It was country chicken and the food was budget friendly. We ordered lot many dishes, two Gravies, one Veg. Biriyani, Tandoori Roti and Masala Papad. For them, we’d ordered… stop recording…what do you call it? What? y’all keep saying it’s a ... Luxury? Yes, a luxury . We had ordered Masala Papad today which is a luxury for us. But still the bill came to be just 575/-. We are back in the room. We will transfer footages now. And then will call it a night as we have to wake up early tomorrow and leave at 4.30 am from here. Do not forget to like the video and you are welcome to give us feedback in the comment section. The link for cinematic video is here, so watch it without fail. Bye Bye Should I say it one more time? Bye Bye Shay Mitchell Is Open To A 'Pretty Little Liars: The Perfectionists' Cameo: 'Never Say Never'12/21/2018 >>> Hello? >>. [ Laughter ] >> Okay.
She plays a police officer who encounters the supernatural working in the morgue. >> Welcome back to "Access live." It's in theaters tomorrow. You knew it. You didn't say anything. We're supposed to be friends. >> What is that thing running across the floor? >> Here's the deal. You're a nighttime intaker at a morgue. I'm not thinking that's going to end well. >> That's not a good job for >> But she is a former cop so it's a scary situation for her. I would have been in and out real quick. But I was playing somebody else, obviously. >> When you are on set, the actress who did the actual possessed part, she's a contortionist? >> She's a contortionist and dancer. When she was doing all that stuff you saw, that was real it made my reaction so much easier because I was watching >> It freaks you out when you see what they can do with their bodies. Look at that. >> And the eyes. >> That is -- >> It seems like this is your genre. You seem to like "Pretty little liars" had a little bit of a thriller. >> People were asking me, so did you always want to do a horror movie? And to be honest, I always go with the character first and the story line. And this just happened to be a horror movie. >> And probably dorky to ask but do you ever get scared while shooting it? That spooked me out. >> It makes me more aware when I go into public rest rooms. >> If the lights go out, I'm going to lose it. >> That would be a great prank to pull. >> The hand dryer starts to just go. >> It is scary. But at the same time, we have our lovely crew and everybody. So I didn't feel as scared watching it. >> We talked about earlier that you guys fm "Pretty little liars" have these tattoos. >> Yes. >> Were they real -- >> You do? >> It's a real tattoo. >> A real tattoo. >> Whose idea was it to like, let's get our character initials on our fingers. >> It definitely wasn't mine. It was the other girls. They all have tattoos and several of them so they were like, let's really make this permanent. And it didn't look like it hurt but this did hurt. >> There's no fat on that. It's just bone. >> Finger tattoos are painful but I have it forever. >> So nobody backed out or you would have been the one to back out? >> I had no choice. >> Everybody did it. I had to do it. >> Do you keep in touch with the "Pretty little liars" crew? >> Yeah. They came to the screening last night for the movie. It was so nice. But they're like my second always and forever. >> Grew up with them. >> Yeah. I pretty much did. My entire 20s. >> Incredible. >> There's a spin-off. >> Yes. >> And people have been saying, I've seen the Twitter conversations. People are saying maybe we get you back. Would you ever cameo, surprise -- >> Never say never. I'm just so excited for them and I can't wait to watch the pilot with everybody. We're going to try and grab as many as we can together to watch but that show is going to be amazing. >> Perfection. Pretty little liars the perfection. What do we know about it? >> I have no idea. I'm out of the loop. I'm excited to see it. >> You guys are pretty perfect. So they're the perfectionists? >> What do the fans want to people are obsessed with it. >> They do. At least they aren't asking me anymore but I think in a lot of their minds I'll always be Emily or a part of them. >> Show them the finger. >> Also on the gram, you travel like it's nobody's business. You're all over the place. Has that always been a part of your life or something that happened recently? >> No, it's truly my favorite thing to do. I love traveling so much. And any time I get the opportunity, yesterday or oar Mexico City, I think. I go back tomorrow. It's amazing, though. I just -- that's my second home on a plane. > So we want to play a game with you. So girls trip or romantic trip? >> Ooh. Girl trip. >> She was like, nope, I know the follow-up question. >> Who would we go on a romantsic trip with? >> Oh, on the girls trip, I have so many friends to choose from. >> The romantic trip? Okay. Three items you never go on a trip without? >> Cell phone and two cell phone chargers. >> Overpacker or carry-on. >> I'm an overpacker. I just came out with a new travel accessory line. That's because I overpack so much. For me, being organized and having all the right STUF you take all the essentials is so I'm bringing bags with me. >> Love it. Are you the kind that rolls everything? >> I roll everything, all in comparmts. It's all set up. >> I'm going to learn to pack like a pro. >> Shea Mitchell, congrats. It's going to scare you in theaters out tomorrow. >> That was legitimate scare, >> Happy holidays. >> Thank you. Let’s get into the topic without delay. We all know of casino tax refunds and are also aware how harsh the saga of tax in United States becomes at times. It is true that sum of the casino winnings in the United States of America is very rewarding in contrast to several other countries but at the same time it is also a reality that almost one third of amount won in jackpots and games is taken by the government in form of tax. In accordance with the US law, a player will be taxed 30% on his winning amount and it is according to law to withhold 30% of the winning.
Nevertheless, after a specific period of time the concerned individual can lay claim for refund of the tax amount thus paid. But this is not an easy game and unless you abide by the following guidelines, there can’t be any hope. What are those? Well, some of them are stated below. Your first and foremost task is to keep definite record of all winnings along with amounts. Reason? The exact records play the most important role while laying claims for the slots tax refund. What is more such an endeavor will help you for ever and a day to comprehend how much refund you can retrieve. Try to maintain each and every receipt, record or ticket or even statement in the best possible manner and those ought to be safe and sound. There are, in fact, lots of professional online casino refund services in and around the city you live in. What do these professional services do? Well, these organizations and also the persons attached to those are exceedingly professional. Believe me, a highly professional casino refund service (with a good reputation as usual) can guide the concerned player or even you by way of all the processes for claiming the refund. These professionals do remain conscious of all the necessary forms and also of tax laws of US in addition to of your native land. It may be that you are in the United States owing to job and do hail from India in reality. They can also guide you even if there is any change in the law all of a sudden. So, start your search for the best professional casino refund service straight away. Many of us have gone through that situation wherein you saw that your cash is depleting fast. What is worse, you are unexpectedly hit with urgent bill that requires immediate payment, or else you will have to deal with late charges. If you do not have anywhere to go for cash support, you can apply for cash advance loans online. It is simply the most sane to do in your situation, that is, if you cannot ask for advance payment from your employer. Luckily, you do not have to depend on your paycheck all the time, because short term loans can shoulder your expenses for the meantime. When you go to lending sites, you can follow the click here for payday advances button, and then, you will be brought to a new page.
On the other hand, you must not assume that since you can access payday loans easily, you can make it your long term cash problem solver. No, it is certainly not for long term utilization. The reason that lenders can bring you fast cash without any complicated requirements, it is because the loan involve small amount, as well as, it is payable within a few weeks. Why the 5’s are the Most Important Cards If you succeed at counting cards in blackjack, you will certainly raise you chances of winning. Generally, the rule of thumb here is when the deck has many 10’s, it is seen as better for the player for the reason that the dealer will generally bust. Because of this, you, the player, will hit more often. Why the 5's are the Most Important Cards Mathematically, the 5 card can be the most interesting. Back in the day, there were systems for card counting that involved only the 5 card. Once it was seen that the 5’s were gone, it gave players an advantage and that was the time to raise the bets. Each time a 5 came out of the deck, it could add 0.67% better odds for the players return. This would of course only be feasible in a one deck game. This translates into, just one 5 card gone from the deck will create an small but meaningful advantage over the house. And gaining a better edge over the casino would be two of three 5’s out of the deck. This is a rare situation for sure but if you know about it, you can use it when the time comes around. |
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